Carmageddon or the Driverless Economy – Robocars will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history

driverless

Summary:

  • An overlapping confluence of three different technological waves — the smartphone, the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence — have created the conditions for a technological disruption so profound it’s going to change almost everything about the way we move in modern society – overnight, we’ll see a mass defection to mobility as a service 
  • Robocars will make our street safer (fewer accidents, save millions of lives) and make our cities greener (fully electric powered by renewable energy). Reduce the need for parking (approx. 30% of the space currently occupied in cities by parking will be used in new ways)
  • Make transportation cheaper and more convenient and empower the disadvantaged, making personalized and ubiquitous transportation available to virtually everyone on Earth, including children, the elderly, the poor, and people with disabilities. They will save us time. Every year, billions of hours of cognitive potential is wasted in a mostly useless, tedious, and inefficient task

 So what:

  • It is clear that many of the mentioned benefits will begin to materialize within the next 5-10 years. We will have more resource available (more time and more money) and life in a saver world (less accidents and less pollution) – live will be better with shared, autonomous and electric vehicles!
  • OEMs have to move quickly to shape the future. After the tipping point is reached, a huge adoption wave will make the late mover OEMs obsolete
  • The impact of shared, autonomous and electric vehicles will be much deeper and have a far broader scope than currently seen. Basically all major industries will be affected and changed accordingly – it is hard to find an industry which will not be touched by these developments

Stories to shine:

  • “Today, every single major car company says they’ll have fully autonomous vehicles (no steering wheel or pedals) on the road before 2021 and a few, like Tesla and General Motors, say they’ll be ready to go in a year.“
  • “We don’t have to wait for people to get rid of their old cars; one morning, they’ll sit down and do their monthly budget, and realise it makes more sense to hail an autonomous, electric vehicle.“
  • “Two to three years after the tipping point, car prices will crash as people give up their vehicles. New car sales for individuals will drop to nearly zero, creating carnage for car dealerships, auto insurers and repair shops. ”
  • “Bad news for doctors and nurses, who are going to need to find new work when car accidents, responsible for more than half of the admissions to emergency rooms, disappear. Car accidents also supply the majority of organ donations in these countries, so the biotech companies will need to get cracking on 3D printing.”

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