The death of the internal combustion engine – Replacement wave will be the single biggest economic event within our lifetime

deadofICE.jpg

Summary:

  • Internal combustion engines will be replaced by electric motors sooner than expected by most (electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today)
  • Total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer
  • EV with enormous benefits – Existing EVs reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones

So what:

  • Replacement of ICE by EV is a no brainer – latest EV models are already competitive and will have steeper improvement rate than ICE – EV technology is superior
  • Estimate of 14% EV share of global car sales seems in 2025 seems conservative given the huge investments of OEMs, government subsidies and EV friendly policies
  • Replacement wave (EV with autonomous features) will come quick, needs to be manufactured and reshapes mobility fundamentally. It will probably be the single biggest economic event within our lifetime

Stories to shine:

  • “The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants.“
  • “Total cost of ownership of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer.“
  • “Car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents”

Link to article: The death of the internal combustion engine

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