When the internet became a mass medium in the mid-90´s people spend their time online basically in three ways: They downloaded and listened to music They played games online They watched porn The autonomous car will stimulate comparable developments in 2 of the 3 ways outlined above. While customized music is already available in cars via smartphones, games and porn are not! At least not while driving! The significant potential of gaming as part of in-car-entertainment is known and frequently discussed: See a WEF report from 2015 or a recent article from WIRED. However, somehow all reports and self-claimed experts about … Continue reading Driverless cars – How autonomous driving will impact the porn industry? Or how porn will prevent you from sharing your car!
Summary: An overlapping confluence of three different technological waves — the smartphone, the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence — have created the conditions for a technological disruption so profound it’s going to change almost everything about the way we move in modern society – overnight, we’ll see a mass defection to mobility as a service Robocars will make our street safer (fewer accidents, save millions of lives) and make our cities greener (fully electric powered by renewable energy). Reduce the need for parking (approx. 30% of the space currently occupied in cities by parking will be used in new ways) Make transportation cheaper and more convenient and … Continue reading Carmageddon or the Driverless Economy – Robocars will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Summary: Internal combustion engines will be replaced by electric motors sooner than expected by most (electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today) “Total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer EV with enormous benefits – Existing EVs reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones So what: Replacement of ICE by EV is a no brainer – latest EV models are already competitive and will have steeper improvement rate than ICE – EV technology is … Continue reading The death of the internal combustion engine – Replacement wave will be the single biggest economic event within our lifetime
Summary: Rumors that Apple may be building an autonomous system à Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed that the company has a “large project” involving autonomous systems, but it’s not limited to self-driving cars When Apple makes its entrance into the auto industry, it will likely be successful and highly disruptive. Apple has the much-needed software know-how to design an autonomous car and possesses unlimited resources ($150 billion of net cash and $50 billion of free cash flows annually) to invest The Apple iCar will be electric and leverage Apple´s software competence, loyal customer base and brand appeal So what: While iCar rumors are around for years, … Continue reading Apple´s iCar future seems inevitable, but promising when buying a German premium OEM
Summary: Fundamentally different believes of the future of EV by the leading O&G players BP sees EV with limited impact on oil business and continues the status quo. Report generated by BP provides following findings: Electric vehicles (EV) reduce the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. An extra 100m battery-electric vehicles could lower oil demand by around 1.4 Mb/d in 2035 Autonomous vehicles (AV) increase efficiency and so reduce energy demand. If AVs are 25% more fuel efficient, 100m autonomous ICE cars could lower oil demand by 0.4 Mb/d in 2035 (autonomous EVs reduce demand for electricity but not … Continue reading Will BP be the Nokia of Oil&Gas and Shell develop the iPhone of renewables?
Summary: Within 15 years virtually all vehicular traffic in the US will be by autonomous electric vehicles EV’s are significantly cheaper than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars (lower repair and maintenance; lower fuel; lower new car acquisition cost (in 2022!)) Fewer parts means less wearing out, which means less replacing, and higher use factors. 15,000 miles costs about $1,400 using gas, but only $540 using electricity (cost will continue to decrease); In 5 years, a high performing all EV car with at least mid-level autonomy will cost less than $20,000 Demand for electric cars will increase, given all advanced countries will soon … Continue reading The Last Auto Mechanic or “Within 15 years virtually all vehicular traffic will be by autonomous electric vehicles”
Summary: Secondary effects of self driving cars in land use, advertising and retail: Ride-sharing companies will own all/ most of cars and manage them in fleets. These fleets will be in dedicated parking lots and serve as distribution centers (cars will be most of time on the road) –> a lot of space is going to be repurposed Modern homes, with a one- or two-car garage, can have their garage space repurposed to become another bedroom or living space (same logic also applies to driveways) –> will affect property prices. and change in architecture / design of houses Parking lots are … Continue reading Three areas where self-driving cars will bring new opportunities
Summary: Tesla predicts sales of more than 1 million electric vehicals annually in 2020 Primary competition not from other EVs, but from traditional gasoline engines as market headwinds are expected Missing customer awareness limits EV sales –> marketing push by EV OEM needed to address concerns such as range or charging station availability So what: Tesla´s ambition to sell 1 million EV annually by 2020 seems unrealistic (as always!) –> this time they aim to profit from the fleet of other OEM EV models that come to market soon and the wave of marketing to advocate the customer on EV advantages … Continue reading Tesla’s biggest competition for the Model 3 will not come from other electric vehicles
Summary: HERE (mapping service bought by BMW, Audi, Daimler) started its new next generation of connected services with HERE Real-Time Traffic Significantly improved traffic mapping (more accurate, real-time data) –> OEM to again have a better navigation service than smartphone apps (e.g. Google maps) Seen as prerequisite for autonomous driving with more next generation services to come So what: HERE as leading mapping service can provide BMW, Audi, Daimler with an significant advantage in the advanced navigation services field Question is if HERE will allow other OEMs to participate or alternative technologies (e.g. Tesla´s camera enabled maps) can compete It will be … Continue reading Looking to the next generation of connected services with HERE Real-Time Traffic